For many climate models it is not computationally feasible to run hundreds .... recognizing that SO2 emissions come from many sources that are not all ... The SRES scenarios include no uncertainty in current emissions of SO2 ... Finally, the greatest difference between the two methods is found in sulfur emissions. ...
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linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231002002455
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____ 7. The greatest uncertainty in current climate models comes from a. measurements of temperature and air pressure. b. measurements of wind speed and direction. c. patterns of variation in solar radiation. d. effects of clouds and ecosphere on climate.
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www.orange.k12.oh.us/teachers/ohs/jsangdahl/APESWEB/ch1...
www.orange.k12.oh.us/teachers/ohs/jsangdahl/APESWEB/ch18212326
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This link has a really great description of the history of the development of General Circulation Models. It is long and there are lots of citation links to get lost in, but it is clear the models are just computer simulations and cloud effects are still the "greatest uncertainty" (among dozens of other uncertainties.)
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www.climateaudit.org/?p=2564
www.climateaudit.org/?p=2564
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commentary Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver ... The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation ... Personal subscribers to Nature can view articles published from 1997 to the current issue.
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www.nature.com/uidfinder/10.1038/nature01087
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Chapter 20; Climate Change and Ozone Depletion ... ; Past climate Changes and the Greenhouse Effect ... Climate Change and Human Activities...
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www.kenpitts.net/apes/pollution/ch20_take_home_test.htm
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Online news, features and analysis ... The approximate uncertainty in the paleotemperature estimates is +/-2°C. ... Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Current Climate Models May Underestimate Future Warming...
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www.greencarcongress.com/2006/02/current_climate.html
www.greencarcongress.com/2006/02/current_climate.html
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Bringing it back to climate models, there can be strong agreement that 0.2ºC/dec is the expected value for the current forced trend, but comparing the actual trend simply to that number plus or minus the uncertainty in its value is incorrect.
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www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertai...
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-and-the-art-of-model-data-comparison/
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We discuss climate models a lot, and from the comments ... Much of the confusion concerning this point comes from a misunderstanding stemming from the point above. ... Weather models use as much data as there is available to start off close to the current situation and then use their knowledge of physics to step forward in time.
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www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-c...
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-climate-models/
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I consider this to be a huge source of uncertainty, and one that is not appreciated even by most climate modelers. The modelers tune the models to approximate the average relative humidity of the atmosphere, but we still do not understand from ‘first principles’ why the average humidity has its observed value.
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www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/how-do-climate-models-work...
www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/how-do-climate-models-work/
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