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Overconfidence effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The overconfidence effect is a bias in which people are correct in their judgements far less often than they think they are. For example, for certain types of question, answers that people rate as "9...
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Confidence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Confidence is generally described as a state of being certain either that a hypothesis or prediction is correct or that a chosen course of action is the best or most effective. Self-confidence is h...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence |
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We tend to have too much confidence in the accuracy of our own judgements. ... Explanations > Theories > Overconfidence Barrier ... Overconfidence is greatest when accuracy is near chance levels, and reduces as accuracy increases from 50% to 80%. Once accuracy exceeds 80%, people become under-confident.
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"It supplies critically needed experimental support for the idea that positive attitude - which is generally a [beneficial] feature of human behaviour - may lead to overconfidence and [damaging] behaviour in the case of war," comments Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut, US.
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The concept of overconfidence is based on a large body of evidence from cognitive psychological experiments and surveys showing that individuals overestimate their own abilites or knowledge as well as the precision of their information.
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